J.M. Hamilton - Blog
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BLOG.JMHAMILTONPUBLISHING.COM: Monthly Archives for May 2010

"As if to emphasize that the pain in Spain is mainly not contained, Fitch Investors removed the country's top triple-A sovereign-debt rating, replacing it with a still-respectable double-A-plus."

Debt to GDP Ratio.... By Nation....

"Many economists regard deflation as more dangerous than inflation, because it prompts consumers to delay purchases..."

TEXTBOOK CASE... Little to be Gained by Doing the Right Thing! Unfortunately, for the U.S. that's What Many of Us Vote Our Elected Leaders into Office to Do...

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 14 to 23 named storms this season, of which 8 to 14 will turn into hurricanes..."

Round 2: For Containment Cap...

Graphic on the Disaster: A Steady String of Failures...

Hiding Behind Repo 105's...

Many of Mr. Donlan's Complaints are Legitimate....

Retro Blog: Warren Buffett Compares Derivative Products to Veneral Disease.... But Why is Mr. Buffett Being So Harsh on Veneral Disease?

"But officials emphasized that the real solution to the spill was the relief well. They said one of the relief wells was currently proceeding ahead of schedule, but was still at least a month away."

Key Question: Are the Events Leading up to the Blowout on Deepwater Horizon, Isolated, or Common thoughout the Oil Industry?

Could Clean Up Costs Bankrupt BP?

The Senator from Alaska Protests... But the Market is Not Backing His Assertions...

Roaring Virile Fire... Not to be Mistaken for Great Balls of Fire, His Distant Cousin...

Going to War... Look for Severely Muted Financial Reform Legislation to Come Out of Committee...

"Carried Interest" Under Fire.... Hedge Funds and Private Equity Prepare to Release "The Lobbyist"...

Shell and Exxon Move to Corner the Market on the Future....

With the Efficacy of Oil in Question, Shell Moves in on Natural Gas....

"Meanwhile, anticipating that the top kill may not succeed, BP began preparations to try to place a second containment vessel over the leak."

Love, exciting and new...

Psst... "The Cat is Outta the Bag".... German President States Real Reason Nations Go To War. Here's a Hint, It's not to Spread Peace, Love, Democracy and Understanding...

"Now, M3 is shrinking on a year-over-year basis. Whenever that happens, Williams says, "the economy has always followed, either falling into a recession, or if already in recession, intensifying."

“I won’t say progress was zero, but I don’t know if we can round up enough mud to make it work,” the technician said.

“Certainly Goldman wants this case settled. Its management has stated that it wants a ’normal’ relationship with its regulators.”

“In case you’re wondering who’s responsible, I take responsibility,” Mr. Obama said.

"A report from government experts, who said that the flow of oil from the well, which has been gushing since an explosion and fire wrecked a drilling rig in late April, had been several times worse than the preliminary estimate by BP. "

"Bailed-out insurance giant American International Group has slashed its exposure to credit derivatives by nearly two-thirds under government ownership..." Of course, That leaves a third of the derivatives exposure still in play....

Current law imposes a $75 million liability cap on economic damage. Since the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico in late April, legislation has been introduced in Congress to raise the cap to $10 billion.

"Inappropriate''

Mark to Market Accounting, or Mark to Make Believe Accounting.... Proposed Accounting Rule Change is Excellent but Implementation is Years Away!

"... despite the sharp expansion in the balance sheet of the European Central Bank, the broad money supply of the eurozone is shrinking while its turnover (velocity) has declined."

"The global financial crisis is not over, and it's not close to being over, and there are probably other large shoes that can drop beyond Europe."

Revolving Door Between Big Oil and Government...

“Look, a double-dip recession is a genuine risk — I’d place it at 20 percent as opposed to 5 percent a few weeks ago,” said Robert J. Barbera, chief economist for ITG.

JFK Moment for Obama? The Administration Should Set a Goal for the Nation to be Energy Independent within the Decade. Such Leadership Could Save this Presidency!

North Korea, and a Contrived Crisis? What Better Way to Take the Heat off China and the Yuan.

"Some industry experts have speculated that the Deepwater spill and the report’s findings could explain the sudden resignation this month of Chris C. Oynes, who led the Gulf of Mexico region for the Minerals Management Service..."

"Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, who early in the crisis vowed to 'keep the boot on the neck' of BP, threatened to push the company out of the way. But on Monday, Mr. Salazar backed off."

"Financial Reform" Spells "Business as Usual" for Wall Street Banks!

Demand for Oil is Down; The Price of Crude is Dropping, and yet, Despite the Environmental Crisis on the Gulf.... The Department of the Interior is Handing out Drilling Permits (Despite the President's Order to Stop!)

Fed's Full Court Press to Retain Its Powers... After Failing to Manage the Last Crisis, and The Crisis Underway...

A Revision in CPI.... Inflation Worries Muted in the Short Run?

Socialism?

Debt to GDP Ratios... A Cleaner Chart...

"People who owned bonds or stocks during the Great Inflation know how he felt. Today's investors -- their children and grandchildren -- will have their own chance to see how it feels."

Social Benefits Containment and Control Should Not be Borne, Exclusively, by Future Generations of Retirees, but by the Existing Generation of Retirees, As Well... - J.M.H.

Banking Lobbyist Out in Full Force to Perpetuate Systematic Risk and Our Next Financial Collapse, Via the CDS Market.... Per the Times: U.S. commercial banks held derivatives with a notional value of $212.8 trillion...

Administration Still Committed to Big Oil? "We know, for example, that a cozy relationship between oil and gas companies and agencies that regulate them has long been a source of concern.”

Cassano Skates: Mr. Cassano’s lawyer: “Although a two-year, intense investigation is tough for anyone, the results are wholly appropriate in light of our client’s factual innocence.”

"The Chicago Board Options Exchange's measure of volatility, known to the gaming crowd as the VIX, a.k.a. the fear index, shot up some 30%...."

"How would we know the worst is over? Easy: when the CBOE creates VIX totems with catchphrases like 'Make a Friend of Fear.' "

McTague Handicaps Financial Reform Provisions...

China's Government Trecks a Well Worn Path: "The government's stimulus package bailed out the property market, but also bailed out property developers...which created a moral dilemma in which they were privatizing profits and nationalizing losses."

“We know that our dependence on foreign oil endangers our security and our economy,” Mr. Obama.

Geithner: “The president wants us to get this right and make sure that this is the strongest possible bill, but he wants us to get it done in a responsible way that preserves the right balance.” And, maybe, keeps the Campaign Contributions Flowing?

A.I.G., Still Exposed to CDS/Derivatives On the Tax Payer Dime, Could Lose Another $109 Billion.... Where were the Feds?

Pending Twenty Car Pile Up on the NYSE?

"The five banks with the biggest holdings of derivatives -- JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc., and Wells Fargo & Co. -- hold $206.2 trillion, or 97 percent, of that total, the OCC said. "

"The Lincoln plan and the Volcker rule embrace a common principle -- that deposit-taking banks backed by the federal government, with the security and cost-of-capital edge that confers, should not be allowed to invest like hedge funds."

"... a sort of mini-bear market characterized by a 10 percent decline in a short period of time."

"What all this probably means is that we are living in the era of the upstart."

“The recession we’re emerging from was primarily caused by a lack of responsibility and accountability from Wall Street to Washington,” Mr. Obama said.

"In the last month, those historic relationships have been turned on their ear... Rising gold prices have pointed to higher commodity prices. Similarly, rising gold also has been associated to an increase in bond yields as well as a falling dollar."

“After 30 years of giving in to the wishes of Wall Street lobbyists, Congress needs to finally enact tough reforms to prevent Wall Street from driving our economy into the ditch again.” Mr. Feingold said.

"This wasn't tar balls. This wasn't sheen," Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal said. "This is heavy oil in our wetlands."

Chancellor Angela Merkel: “The euro is in danger. If we don’t deal with this danger, then the consequences for us in Europe are incalculable.”

"Peter Kraus... explains that individual investors, unlike institutional clients, occasionally make 'comments like ur good at making money for urself but not us.'"

Goldman & Client Arbitrage.... Future Goldman Clients May Want to Prohibit Goldman Trading Activities against Their Transactions with Goldman, or Move Their Financial Services to Goldman Competitors.

Senator Dodd Prepares for His New Job on Wall Street...

"It remains to be seen how big a difference Tea Party support means in a general election."

Private Equity to Be Taxed Like All Other Businesses...

Merkel: “The speculators are our adversaries.”

Wall Street Caught Ripping Off Munis and the States...

Can the U.S. Weather Another Disaster?

Basel III - No Mention of Breaking Up Banks that are Too Big to Save....

“The expansion could end up being relatively short.”

“Removing one person might be a start, but MMS is in need of an exhaustive overhaul and comprehensive reform.”

“The information regarding the chemical composition, efficacy and toxicity of the dispersants currently being used is scarce.”

"At the same time, seemingly safe institutions in more solid economies like France and Germany hold vast amounts of bonds from their more shaky neighbors, like Spain, Portugal and Greece."

As Ms. Merkel Learned Last Week, Democracies Have a Way of Separating Politicians and Governments Away from Inflationary Policies, and Further Helping, Same, Come to the Realization that Some Institutions are Too Big to Save!!!!

Time to Vacation in Euro-land !!! Can Another Bretton Woods Be Far Behind?

"... Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) -- disclosed in filings that their trading operations were profitable each and every day in the first quarter."

A New Speculative Bubble in Commerical Real Estate? Is this yet another form of Welfare for the Banks and Commerical Property Mortgage Holders, or just another Fed Unintended Consequence.

"While Germany has been diligent in tending to its economy and minding its financial integrity since the formation of the European Monetary Union, Greece and the other so-called Southern European nations have partied."

"Most states have balanced-budget requirements, but they get around those strictures by creating all manner of bonding authorities."

A Picture of Hell...

"Senator Johnny Isakson, Republican of Georgia, told SunTrust, the largest bank in his state, that this time he planned to vote against the bank and with Coca-Cola and Home Depot."

The likes of Big Oil and Opec Have Held Sway Over our Democracy for Decades...

From the Same Government Agency (Minerals Management Service), Who Abdicated Their Responsibility to the Taxpayers, by Taking Drugs and Sex from the Oil Industry...

"The euro was trading at $1.2568 late Thursday in New York."

The Oil Pollution Act Caps Third Party Damages from an Oil Spill at $75 Million...

“Will economic and financial distress finally be resolved by looking toward more integration in a closely integrated Europe, politically as well as economically?” Volcker said

Rating Agency Arbitrage.... Were the Agencies Dupes or Willing Dupes?

Mr. Gross Takes on the Rating Agencies

"The real M3 has contracted 6.9% in the latest 12 months. That would be a record in the modern reporting of M3. According to SGS, this collapse "signals a pending economic downturn or pending intensification of an existing economic contraction."

“I would not even rule out in the next few years one or more of these laggards of the euro zone might be forced to exit the monetary union.”

The euro continued to struggle, trading at $1.2626 against the dollar.

Who Promised Greek Society Retirement At Age 40?

“There’s got to be fundamental underlying changes in their economies, not just Greece, but a lot of other countries,” Shelby cited Bernanke as saying.

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