J.M. Hamilton - Blog
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BLOG.JMHAMILTONPUBLISHING.COM: Monthly Archives for June 2010

"(B.P.'s C.D.S.) blew out, with the cost of guaranteeing $10 million of its debt for five years, nearly doubling on the week, to $400,000 annually, according to data firm Markit—contributing to the severe downward pressure on the company's stock."

Was Bush (W) Looking out for the Elderly When He Expanded Medicare Coverage to Include Meds (2006), or Was He Looking Out for Big-Pharma?

Mr. Epstein Appears a Little Less Ebullient.... Facts, for the Moment, Appear to Have Run Over Wishful Thinking and Cheerleading...

While the Gulf Metaphorically Burns.... D.C. Waits...

Mr. Snaith: "With oil drilling — as with Wall Street — 'there will be significant rethinking about who benefits and who bears the cost.' "

"Gold, he said, is a logical hedge against this risk, because firing up the printing presses ignites inflation."

"Part of Turkey’s motivation in reaching out to Iran is based in realpolitik. Iran is Turkey’s neighbor and also supplies the country with a fifth of its natural gas."

"The bailout had a "poisonous'' effect, the report says, because now the markets believe the government will commit taxpayer money to prevent the collapse of big financial institutions and to repay their trading partners."

Part I: The Spill, The Scandal and the President

Part II: The Spill, The Scandal and the President

Mr. Abelson Provides Several Quick Shocks of Reality on a Saturday Morning... Strap- on Your Kevlar!

The Fallout from Obama/Reid Taking Yucca Mountain Off Line: Nuclear Energy may Stumble, Leaving America Dependant Upon, Whom? Big Oil, OPEC, and Big Coal !!!

“The stagnation we are experiencing now is due in great part to a struggling economy, burgeoning budget deficit and a breakdown of trust in social welfare,” he said. Lets Not Forget About Zombie Banks!

Bikinis and Hazmat Suits: “The oil ruined everything,” he said. “It will be for years to come.”

“It’s back to business as usual.”

One Wonders How Britian Might Act Towards B.P., if the Disaster Had Happened Near the Cliffs of Dover?

Interesting Site: Wikileaks...

“Leave the gun (drones); Take the cannoli (troops)"

Getting Kind of Mean in the Bayou: “You find someone competent who can kick their butt and take what is owed to you for full, fair and honest compensation.”

"Theoretically, an unlimited amount of credit-default swaps can be written and bought on any issuer, and there are incentives for buyers to make companies look sickly."

With European Economy Struggling.... the U.S. Begins to Push China on Currency!

"For the police to tell me I needed to sign paperwork with BP to go to a public beach?" Mr. Lysiak said. "It's just irrational."

"From the beginning of the disaster, BP has provided estimates that were vastly lower than reality."

Blankfein Said: "They might have an idea. But they might not have an idea." RIGHT!

"We advocate switching out of equity positions and going to cash."

Sovereign Dominoes Illustrated!

Advocate for a Liberal Immigration Policy? " This year, he said, there are about five Americans between the ages of 20 and 64 for each person aged 65 or older. By the time most of the baby boomers have retired in 2030, he warned, there will be only 3."

If the Fed is, afterall, a Political Institution.... How Political are the Findings of the Beige Book?

"But Russia and China, which have strong economic ties with Tehran and have at times resisted sanctions, fully backed the new U.N. move to blacklist dozens of Iranian military, industrial and shipping firms."

LIVE... From 5,000 Feet Below Sea Level, It's the OIL SPILL....

Heaven Sent.... Now Bring on the Derivatives REFORM!

"Regulation isn’t an obstacle to thriving free markets; it’s a vital part of them." That said, the Less the Potential for Regulatory Capture, that is to say the less discretion Regulators have (so as not to exploit or be exploited), the Better!

"Senator Jeff Merkley told Reuters on Tuesday that the Volcker rule is crucial to reform and should be toughened."

North American War Casualties...

This outcome might seem far-fetched right now. But on Wall Street bankers have already coined a term for it: “the Texaco scenario.”

“It’s apparent that BP is playing games with us, presumably under the advice of their legal team,” Dr. Leifer said. “It’s six weeks that it’s been dumping into the gulf, and still no measurements.”

"...(The Financial Reform) bill is on track to being the most misguided piece of federal banking regulation in the past half-century,” said Richard S. Carnell, a Fordham law professor.

JUSTICE FOR SALE... ?

With M3 Contracting, the only Sector of the Economy that Appears to be Benefiting from a 0% Fed Funds Rate.... Are the Banks!

"... a step toward what Bill Gross called a 'debt super cycle.'"

"Some questioned whether BP knew or even wanted to know how much oil was escaping."

“We’re maxed out." "The Discoverer Enterprise drill ship can only handle 15,000 barrels a day, and the capping device was trapping almost that amount without the vents shut."

"Apple, Dell and Hewlett-Packard have already said they are looking into conditions at Foxconn — although Apple’s chief executive, Steven P. Jobs, said last week that he was troubled by the suicides but that Foxconn was 'not a sweatshop.'"

Whole Lotta Failure Going On, but BP's CEO Refuses to Accept Responsibility...

Will Obama Take on the Banks and Big Oil (?), Or Will He Allow His Presidency to be Characterized as Four More Years of Bush....

Trillions of Dollars of Prospective Investment Dollars are Sitting on the Side Line, and Even Banks Don't Trust One Another's Financials to Lend to One Another: What's Wrong with this Picture?

Like the Lack of Mud for the Top Kill... "Now, technicians involved in the operation say they are concerned that as they succeed in gathering more and more oil, they may have trouble handling and storing all of it."

Will AIG Pay Back the Taxpayers... As They Say Around the Meadowlands: "For Get About It!"

Retro Blog: "The whole point of the bailout is to save Goldman Sachs," said Christopher Whalen, head of financial advisory services for Institutional Risk Analytics. "The whole thing is so rancid and so hideous."

Say It Isn't So: " 'It's patently unfair,' he says. He told the SEC that the markets are rigged."

"In other words, what's really ailing the market is a strong whiff of reality -- for which, it grieves us to say, there's no quick cure."

A Nation of Special Interests with Lobbyist Running the Show: "Regulatory capture –where regulators come to share the interests and viewpoint of the industry they are supposed to be overseeing, rather than acting in the broader 'public interest...' "

"You're damned if you save and you're damned if you don't." Roubini

“It’s going to have an impact for years to come.”

"Real investors pay real money for the assessments of Egan-Jones and Gimme Credit. Or, in the case of highly successful debt investors, they do their own homework and pay scant attention to the ratings agencies."

Even Sacred Cows Feel Budgetary Heat.... But Will Dod Budgetary Goals Stand Up to the Blitz of Lobbyist, Special Interests and Generals?

“Fundamentally, Hungary’s economy is nowhere near the debt level of Greece, and it has more than enough money to service its debt, while I don’t think there is a data integrity problem."

“We discovered that companies like BP, who had provided assurances that they had failsafe, back-up, redundant systems, in fact not only didn’t have failsafe systems but had no idea what to do when those failsafe systems broke down,” Obama said.

“We set ourselves up for this bailing us out of euro land,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management.

State Bird of Louisana: Pelican au chocolat !!!!

"White House officials said they will not let the focus on the oil spill detract from the rest of the president’s economic, legislative and foreign agenda, pointing out that he still seems likely to sign financial regulation reform by next month..."

Buffett, Born and Derivatives!

Shadow Congress - The Revolving Door Between the Federal Government and Lobbyist! How Many Former Congressmen and Senators are Now Lobbyist in Your Home State?

Retro Blog: "It's not clear who we're rescuing -- whether it is whatever remains of AIG or its trading partners," said Dodd.

"Oil may have arrived already in the Florida Keys. Coast Guard investigators are looking into reports of an oily substance and tar balls near Duck Key, Long Key and Grassy Key, Florida, according to a statement."

Biofuel: What Does Exxon Know that the Doubters Don't? Big Oil Moves On Biofuel and Natural Gas... All The Better to Keep Monopolistic Powers in Place!

".... with early reports indicating a 15 to 25 percent increase in property coverages for rigs operating in shallow waters and up to 50 percent higher for deepwater rigs."

Money and Lobbyist Never Sleep!

The Article Really Doesn't Address Why Conventional Explosives Won't Work....

"Bottom line: Softening data out of China along with the problems in Europe and the concomitant elevation in the dollar exchange rate is likely to push out the timeline on China's renminbi revaluation."

Retro Blog: Bloomberg Dumps Private Equity's Quadrange, Founded by Buddy, Mr. Rattner! See Following Article...

Now We Can Imagine Why Mayor Bloomberg Quickly Removed $5 Billion from Private Equity's Quadrangle, Created and Operatated by Mr. Bloomberg's Friend - Steve Rattner!

"I just know that their business model is extraordinary.” Indeed, Mr. Buffett, Any Business Model would be Extraordinary, if the Feds Protected You from Legal Action (With a 10% Success Ratio), and You Openly Took Money from the Banks You Evaluated!

Rating Agencies Continue to Enjoy a Free Ride, As Judge Rakoff Dismisses Class Action Law Suit. Between the Rating Agencies and Fantasy Public Accounting, No Investor is Safe!

Gulf States Begin to Dump Euro! So Who Gets Burned by this Event? That would be U.S. and European Banks, and Western Governments Propping Up Same Banks!

"I think the environmental impact of this disaster is likely to have been very, very modest.": B.P. CEO, Mr. Hayward.

The Market is Responding to the Gulf Crisis, by Dumping BP's Stock...... Markets Sometimes Do Behave Rationally!

Mr. Gibbs added that the White House did not think BP “was forthcoming on what the impact would be of cutting the riser off.”

"West (Assistant AG) also lambasted Transocean for moving forward with a $1 billion payout of dividends to shareholders, saying that it added 'insult to injury.' "

“You have the great problem of a potential disintegration of the euro,” Volcker.

Retro Blog: "The intervention would be the fourth time that the United States has had to step in to help A.I.G., the giant insurer, avert bankruptcy."

Big Oil Sweats the BP Crisis.... Remember: The Horse and Buggy Did Not go the way of the Dinosaur, because The World Ran Out of Horses...

AIG Can Afford to Reject the Counter Offer, After All They are Backed by the Full Faith and Credit of the U.S. Government, and Nobody at Fed or Treasury is Putting Pressure on AIG to Repay Their Debt...

Mr. Gross lays out the breakeven point, sovereign debt to GDP ratio, at which point public sector debt becomes a drag on an economy...

“If this doesn’t work, you are looking at August before you can kill the well."

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