J.M. Hamilton - Blog
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BLOG.JMHAMILTONPUBLISHING.COM: Monthly Archives for July 2010

NO MORE AFGHANISTANS

"The U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style outcome today than at any time in recent history."

Why Should a Foreign Insurance Carrier Enjoy a Competitive Advantage, and a Tax Holiday, Versus a U.S. Insurance Carrier? Could the U.S. Finally Be Exerting It's Economic Muscle/Leverage Over Foreign Multi-Nationals, and Global Arbitrage? Lets Hope!

Platinum Parachutes

"Helicopter Ben"??? Quantitative Easing (QE) Does Nothing to Spur the Economy, if Banks Won't Lend or Make Financing Attractive, or If Consumers or Small Business are Heavilly Indebted.... QE does, however, Enrich Banks!

A substantial portion of the Wyly brothers’ money has been stowed for years in a complex web of offshore companies and trusts whose purpose is to minimize the tax bills, according to a 2006 Congressional investigation into tax havens.

Statistical Revsions in GDP...

"Recent reports from Fed policy makers suggest the central bank has become increasingly worried about where the economy is headed."

“People 50 and below should change their planning now to incorporate a benefit cut,” said Laurence J. Kotlikoff, an economics professor at Boston University.

DPI is Flat...

Deleverage & Deflation

“By concealing that the entities making the sales were under the control of the Wylys, other investors paid inflated prices for the shares they sold,” Mr. Reisner said.

“I think it’s too far gone to salvage.”

Republicans Play Politics with Jobs and the Economy. It Appears that the Republican Party's Deep and Abiding Affinity for Business Does Not Include Smaller Businesses, Who Can't Afford to Write the Big Campaign Contribution Checks....

The Conservatism of the Roberts Court

DEFLATION! Some Fed Members Still Say It Doesn't Exist.... Have those same members Examined the Free Fall in Home Prices?

Is Mr. Gates Upset over the Leak and the Possible Threat It Poses to Americans and our Allies, Or is Mr. Gates Embarrassed Over the Billions the U.S. Pours Into Pakistan, Who Then Turns Around and Provides Aid and Comfort to Our Enemies???

"Unusually Uncertain," outlook cited by Bernanke.

But they did such a Great Job with U.S. Bank Reform....

Wait a Minute... You Mean Citi, Which is Still Obligated to the U.S. Taxpayer (via TARP), is Going to Pay the U.S. Government Taxpayer Money for Its Crimes? Why Not Take the Money Out of Executive Bonus Monies? It might mean something then.

"It was creating a modern state, a modern democracy in Afghanistan with limited resources," Holbrooke said of President George W. Bush's goals.

What Kind of Market Makes Excessive Profits in the Face of a Glut of Supply, and a Sharp Decrease in Demand???..... Um, That Would be an Unregulated Oligopoly or Monopoly!

Why Indeed? Meanwhile the U.S. Pays Pakistan to Support the Taliban and Destabilizing Forces in the Region...

Manufacturing expanded in most regions. However, half of them — New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta and Richmond — reported that activity had “slowed” or “leveled off.”

One in four Texans is Uninsured

General Mattis: “I think that is the approach, Senator.”

$8.7 Billion, Allocated for Construction, Unaccounted For in Iraq!

Updating the Case Shiller 100 Chart & Forecast - By Barry Ritholtz - July 28th, 2010

Goldman Barraged with Multiple Civil Suits, In Multiple Jurisdictions, Over Abacus.

Wall Street Hedges Its Political Capital and Lays Down 50/50 for Repubs/Dems!

Afghanistan Calls America on Turning a Blind Eye on Pakistan's Support for Terrorist Groups....

As Predicted by this Blog.... Hayward Leaves, Post-Capping of the Spill...

If, As Argued Below, America is About to Incurr the Greatest Tax Increase in History... Couldn't the Reverse Be Argued?

Case-Shiller

"Falling consumer confidence and the growing likelihood of a double-dip in house prices have put a further dent in the already deteriorating outlook for consumption growth."

Fox Volunteers to be in Charge of the Hen House...

"For me a double-dip is another recession before we've healed from this recession ... The probability of that kind of double-dip is more than 50 percent," Shiller said.

A Public Service Message from the N.F.L.

The Economist: The latest Big Mac index suggests the euro is still overvalued

The Economy very well May take off again, when Obama is Re-Elected... Until then, Monied Interests May Play Politics with the Economy and Employment!

Cassano Returns to the Spot Light, And Not a Moment Too Soon!

SOVEREIGN FRAUD: "France and Germany have led efforts to weaken rules proposed by the committee... , concerned that their banks and economies won’t be able to bear the burden of tougher capital requirements until a recovery takes hold."

From PIMCO, Mr. Clarida

This Story/Leak Goes to the Reality Facing America, NATO, and China: How to Stop Terrorist States with Nukes (e.g. Pakistan!)? The U.S. Should Have Never Squandered Nearly a Decade in Afghanistan; It Should Have Focused on Pakistan!

DEMOCRACY FOR SALE: Dems Attempt to Block the Roberts Court, Over Undisclosed, and Unlimited, Campaign Contributions!

In the short run, cutting expenses (laying off work force), is a way to report Increased Profits; BUT at the Macro Level, and in the medium term and longer run, Is the Private Sector, essentially, laying off top line growth?

“About 40 percent of the oxygen that you and I are breathing right now comes from the algae in the oceans.”

"Nonetheless, senior lawmakers say they have no doubt that Pakistan is aiding insurgent groups."

"The secret documents, released on the Internet by an organization called WikiLeaks, are a daily diary of an American-led force..."

Can Mr. Blankfein at Goldman Be Far Behind?

"We have changed so little from the 2008 failure. Risks have, if anything, increased because of our unwillingness to face up to our problems."

"In a stroke, a hedge fund manager here named Anthony Ward has all but cornered the market in cocoa."

Republican Party Fairy Tale: The Bush Tax Cuts!

Proably the Key Reason to Keep Obama in Office, A Rabidly Reactionary Roberts Court....

"The Bloomberg poll found Americans blaming Bush more than Obama for the budget deficit and unemployment."

JUNGLE UBER ALLES! An Unusual Sense of "Principals," as Described Below, Apparently Includes the "Mistaken" Ability: to Set Up Clients, While Placing Bets Against Same Clients, and almost, Single Handedly Bringing Down the World Economy!

"Thanks in no small measure to the mischievous trashing of so much of the world's paper money, conspicuously including the once-almighty dollar, gold has been on a tear, shooting up some fivefold in value since 2002."

Private Equity's KKR Not Fairing So Well on the Street, with Its I.P.O.

"That's bad news for home builders, who already have big troubles, as June's reports on housing starts, existing-home sales, building permits and unsold-home inventories showed."

"Last September, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed was preparing a tough set of pay guidelines for big financial firms to follow. Ten months later, we are still waiting for them to be announced and implemented."

The Complicity between Goldman, The Fed, and Treasury is Staggering!

“It is a very serious test,” Franz-Christoph Zeitler, a member of the executive board of the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, said at a news conference in Frankfurt. He called criticism of the tests “premature.”

“If I had it to do over again, I’d do some things in my career differently, but not many. I believed in people and I still believe in them. I trusted and I still trust. I cared and I still care. I wouldn’t have had it any other way."

"Our experience in southwestern Pennsylvania suggests that this cannot possibly be true.”

Retro Blog: Mark to Make-Believe Accounting - FASB Caves!

(Goldman) denied gaming values to get a massive payout and said Goldman got no special benefit from AIG's bailout.

The Efficacy of Prohibition? Mexico at War!

E.U. White Wash: “It strikes me that the scenarios being tested aren’t particularly tough,” Blanchflower said. “What if it’s much worse than that? There are too many questions and it doesn’t look that convincing.”

Who Profits from Holding Back Tengiz Oil Supply from the World Market? Answer: That would be OPEC and Big Oil...

"The central bank now owns mortgage securities with a face value of $1.1 trillion."

"Anadarko has said that publicly available information suggests that BP may have been grossly negligent or engaged in willful misconduct, which could release Anadarko from any obligation to contribute."

"The bank (Citigroup) handed out several hundred million dollars in pay in 2008 as it struggled to stay afloat."

By Drawing Attention to a War without End, A War Barely On Most American's Radar, Stanley McChrystal May End Up Yet, A Singularly Great American Hero, But for Reasons He may have Never Dreamed Of... - J.M.H.

As Predicted by this Blog In Feb - Contigency Fees Would Begin Again, In the Insurance Brokerage Community

"Do low inflation and interest rates necessarily translate into high P/Es?"

Flush with Taxpayer Money, GM Buys a Subprime Lender...

“Sovereign and bank risks had become interwoven in markets’ eyes, and the stress tests will go some way toward alleviating fears that weakness in banks is going to undermine sovereigns,” said David Page, at Investec Securities in London.

AFGHANISTAN. NATION BUILDING??? With an unemployment/underemployment rate of 20% or Greater, Perhaps our Elected Leaders Could do a Little Nation Building Here in the U.S.

An Inverted Yield Curve?

$2.3 TRILLION...

“Investors are just very nervous right now.”

“Because of this law, the American people will never again be asked to foot the bill for Wall Street’s mistakes,” Mr. Obama said. “There will be no more taxpayer-funded bailouts. Period.”

Attempts to Fight A Regulatory Review Fell Through in the Courts, So Now Big Oil Wants to Act Like Good Corporate Citizens...

The Fed Can Dump All the Money It wants Into the Banks, but As We can See from Shadow Government's M3 Charts, The Stimulus Is Not Making It Beyond Bank Vaults, Hedge Funds, Private Equity and the Purchase of Sovereign Debt...

Here's a Stimulus Concept: How About Shift All the Toxic Assets off the Feds Balance Sheet, and Back on to the Banks Balance Sheets, from Whence it Came...

"The imbalance created by the dependence of the U.S, economy on building, buying, selling and financing residential real estate has not been corrected."

Massive Government Subsidies for Big Oil, and Not So Much for Green Tech....

"Christopher Whalen, a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York official, said after the settlement last week that Blankfein would probably leave 'within a decent interval' in order to help repair the company's reputation."

Apple's Profits Soar... Slave Labor Suicides Remain Flat...

"Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) should lead and conduct military operations in all provinces by the end of 2014."

"C.D.O.’s, or collateralized debt obligations, were the financial product at the center of the S.E.C.’s complaint, which accused Goldman Sachs of misleading investors in a subprime mortgage product as the housing market began to collapse."

"We feel that our clients have been pretty supportive of us, so far as we can tell.”

“All banks passing the tests would mean the tests were useless.”

Goldman and Tourre Still In the Woods...

"Without the legislative purity that Volcker was hoping for, enforcing his rule will be difficult, and will rely on many of the same regulators who did such a poor job the last time around, particularly those at the Fed."

Any Dividend, or Premium, on the Sale of AIA Should Accrue to the U.S. Taxpayer!

“Through the E.C.B., E.U. and I.M.F., the official sector has stepped in with its balance sheet to assume liabilities previously held by the private sector, thereby allowing private investors to exit in an orderly fashion.”

Religeous Right Joins Obama on Immigration Reform...

"The Moody’s forecast assumes the well will continue to leak until early August, when two relief wells stop the flow permanently, and that none of Florida’s Panhandle beaches will be closed as a result of the spill."

"Builders compete with inventories of existing homes being swelled by mounting foreclosures. Home seizures climbed 38 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc. said last week."

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