Republicans are heading into the general election phase of the midterm campaign backed by two powerful currents: the highest proportion of Americans in two decades say it is time for their own member of Congress to be replaced, and voters are expressing widespread dissatisfaction with President Obama’s leadership.
But the latest New York Times/CBS News poll also finds that while voters rate the performance of Democrats negatively, they view Republicans as even worse, providing a potential opening for Democrats to make a last-ditch case for keeping their hold on power.
The poll represents a snapshot of the country’s political mood as the campaign pivots from primary contests that have revealed deep divisions among Republicans into the general election, where the parties deliver their competing arguments to a wider audience. The findings suggest that there are opportunities and vulnerabilities for both parties as they proceed into the final seven weeks of the campaign.
A case for Republicans: Voters are remarkably open to change, even if they are not sure where Republicans will lead them. Most Americans, including one-third of those who were part of the coalition that elected Mr. Obama, now say he does not have a clear plan to solve the nation’s problems or create jobs. Democrats remain highly vulnerable on the economy.
A case for Democrats: The party is seen as having better ideas for solving the country’s problems. The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. And far more people still blame Wall Street and the Bush administration than blame Mr. Obama for the country’s economic problems.
The public has a darker view of Congressional Republicans than of Democrats, with 58 percent disapproving of Democrats and 68 percent disapproving of Republicans. But with less than two months remaining until Election Day, there are few signs Democrats have made gains persuading Americans that they should keep control of Congress.
“I really think we need to get some new blood in there,” said Kathy Beckman, 44, an optometrist from Lodi, Calif., who spoke in an interview after participating in the poll. “Get them all out. I would like to see a more conservative government.”
The mood of the country is similar in many respects to the fall of 1994, when Republicans swept control of Congress. There is an overall low Congressional approval, large numbers of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track and soaring discontent among voters with their own representative in Congress.
It is that particular finding in the poll that underscores the true depths of the disgruntlement among the public and is an ominous sign for Democrats, who hold 39 more seats in the House and 10 more seats in the Senate than Republicans.
In many election cycles, voters readily acknowledge that they are dissatisfied with government or Congress in general, but they tend to have a stronger connection toward their own representative. That is not the case this year, with 55 percent of voters saying it is time for new leadership and only 34 percent saying their lawmaker deserves re-lection. It is a historical high for a question asked in each midterm election year since 1990.
The economic climate in the country is also worse this year, with 8 in 10 Americans rating the economy negatively and 4 in 10 saying that their family’s financial situation is worse than it was two years ago. In September 1994, two months before Democrats lost their majorities in the House and Senate, more than half of people said the condition of the national economy was good.
The economy and jobs are increasingly and overwhelmingly cited by Americans as the most important problems facing the country, while the federal budget deficit barely registers as a topic of concern when survey respondents were asked to volunteer their worries.
The national telephone poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, the day that primary contests unfolded in seven states. The survey included 990 adults, of whom 881 were registered voters. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Voters do not perceive Republicans as having better ideas and disagree with them on the biggest economic issue of the campaign – whether to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy – a sign the party has no real advantage on key elements of their agenda, which makes it even more necessary to run as a generic alternative to the party in power.
The Tea Party movement, which showed its strength in Republican primaries in Delaware and New York, has yet to be fully defined for many Americans. Nearly half of voters say they are undecided or have not heard enough about the Tea Party to form an opinion, a sign that offers an opportunity for the movement to define itself to many voters and help shape their views of it before Election Day.
Nearly half of all Republican voters say they have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party. But the view of the movement amongindependent voters grew more negative since a Times/CBS poll was conducted in April. Now, 30 percent of independent voters have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, with 18 percent holding a favorable view and more than half offering no opinion.
The president’s job overall job approval rating is 45 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. On the economy, his rating is worse, with 41 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. When asked whether Mr. Obama has a clear plan for solving the nation’s problems, 57 percent responded that he did not, yet twice as many give him more credit than Republicans for having a plan.
“He had a lot of plans and he’s not really sticking to them like he said he would,” Tammy Danley, 38, an independent voter from Louisburg, Kan., said in an interview after participating in the poll. “It seems like a lot of talk and not a lot of action.”
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